What are the statistics of me getting Carona virus ?

amother

OP ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:33 am

My age is 57 and in good health
I live near new Rochelle where members of the young isreal has 1000 people self quarantined and some mandatory
Y they caught it from
One lawyer who did not travel anywhere only to Miami he gave it to members of the shul by attending a funeral a barmitzvah and going to shul the shuls rabbi fink has it and his wife
Two students have it from Westchester Torah academy and one from Westchester day school
One adult has it from jre which is connected to young Israel of white plains the jre people who attended two events are self quarantined my son says I shouldn’teave the house
A friend is in quarantined
Purim party’s and events have been canceled
What’s the cdc statistics of me getting it I’m 57

nchr ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:40 am

If you use the same shul, your chances of getting the virus are higher than an average American, but I I don't know those numbers, especially since I do not know your exposure. Are you asking your chances of having a severe case?

According to the link below, you have above an 98% chance of recovering, and likely those in your age group who did not included individuals with underlying health conditions. About 20% of cases require hospitalization, likely weighing more heavily toward senior citizens and those with compromised immune systems. According to South Korea's numbers, chances of recovering are even higher.
https://www.worldometers.info/.....hics/

So you're most likely to just have the standard symptoms and IYH you wont even get it.

amother

Copper

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:41 am

So sorry! My heart goes out to you and everyone!
Unfortunately I don’t know if anyone can fully say. We’re you exposed to any exposed people? Be as vigilant as possible you can research the info how best to be super vigilant washing hands frequently with soap hand sanitizer etc.
deep clean starting now for pesach. Bleach kills this virus germ B”H.
Minimize going into public places, exposure, and the like.
Say tehilim!
Wishing everyone abundant health in every way!

amother

↑ OP ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:42 am

I don’t belong to that shul I live nearby
What are the chances in the USA that a 57 year old will get it
Thanks for the answer

amother

↑ OP ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:45 am

I was not exposed to any exposed people I read some parts bleach to some parts water to clean the house I don’t know exact recipe and leave it on
Don’t wipe it off I heard after first symptoms to use zinc lozenges and drink plenty of orange juice

↑ nchr ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:48 am

The chances of someone getting the virus has to do with their level of exposure. If someone had zero exposure, their chance is zero. If they had prolonged exposure if a sick individual, then the chance is significantly higher.

We know the virus is significantly less contagious than measles and also less contgaious chicken pox and that it is more contagious than the common cold or flu.

amother

↑ OP ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:53 am

[quote="nchr"]The chances of someone getting the virus has to do with their level of exposure. If someone had zero exposure, their chance is zero. If they had prolonged exposure if a sick individual, then the chance is significantly higher.

We know the virus is significantly less contagious than measles and also less contgaious chicken pox and that it is more contagious than the common cold or flu.[/quote
Thanks that makes sense I feel better

southernbubby

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 8:59 am

I read this morning that approximately 100 people were at a Shiva house in Maryland and someone tested positive and now the rest are quarantined.
Apparently being in a group situation or crowd ups the risk and staying out of crowded situations and social gatherings reduces the risk.

amother

↑ OP ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 9:04 am

southernbubby wrote:

People in my nearby town of young isreal of newrochelle request visitors not to come to shiva now the public schools

Have an option not to come to school and students won’t face penalties
They will receive their school work in new Rochelle parents are scared to send their kids to public school

amother

↑ OP ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 9:08 am

In Westchester their are email scams pretending to be from the cdc if you open it you’re computer will get a virus
News 12 Westchester

amother

Ruby ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 9:27 am

southernbubby wrote:

Where did you read this? Which Shiva house?

elisheva25

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 10:15 am

nchr wrote:

This, 100%

amother

↑ Ruby

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 10:32 am

elisheva25 wrote:

This, 100%

Well not exactly. There are immune system factors as well. People that eat well, live a healthy lifestyle, take vitamin D and probiotics are less likely to contract the virus even if exposed. Like all viruses, exposure doesnt mean definate sickness.

We should still wash hands and listen to whatever the CDC says, I'm just pointing out that exposure doesnt necessarily=getting it.

↑ nchr ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 10:38 am

amother [ Ruby ] wrote:

That is not true here because there is no immunity to the virus. If someone is exposed to enough of a viral load, they will get the virus because the immune system has no immunity or recognition of the virus. There is a theory that children are less likely to be infected or have symptoms because they are more likely to have had recent infections with other coronaviruses which offer them protection against this virus, but that has not yet been proven.

amother

Crimson ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 1:51 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

in one family two kids got it and one did not

I hope it's true that the child did not contract it. However, it seems somewhat unlikely given what we know of the illness - sometimes tests have false negatives.

Or maybe this is evidence of the theory referred to by Ima Nchr that children have been exposed to another coronavirus and can have immunity.

↑ nchr ↓

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 2:36 pm

amother [ Crimson ] wrote:

And the child may be immune for some other weird reason, which scientists would study. But more likely is s/he has not tested positive yet, because that can happen anytime during the 2 week period, even up to four weeks in some cases. Due to the age, the child will likely be fine IYH

amother

↑ Crimson

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 2:45 pm

nchr wrote:

Due to the age, the child will likely be fine IYH

Certainly hope so. And also hope there is no shingles type after-effect - we know very little about this virus. All the more reason to make every effort to keep it contained as much as possible.

sky

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 2:47 pm

amother [ Ruby ] wrote:

What is this based on?

I would think a person can fight it better. But how would they not catch it?

Last edited by sky on Sun, Mar 08 2020, 2:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

↑ nchr

Sun, Mar 08 2020, 2:47 pm

amother [ Crimson ] wrote:

Certainly hope so. And also hope there is no shingles type after-effect - we know very little about this virus. All the more reason to make every effort to keep it contained as much as possible.

We can compare to other coronaviruses and hypothesize that it likely will behave the same afterwards, so likely don't need to worry about something like that, but we will have to wait and see. And yes, we need to keep it contained, especially until we know more, have antiviral therapies, etc.