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Lakewood area housing bubble
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amother
  Bluebonnet  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 9:26 pm
amother [ Birch ] wrote:
Yes full houses not basement rentals. But most are temporary a year or less. They aren’t investments.


Yes all but one that we looked at were 2 years or less only
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amother
  Peony  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 9:52 pm
amother [ Stonewash ] wrote:
I respectfully disagree. Many are moving from Brooklyn because there is no room or anything available or too high priced. And lakewood is also outgrown. As yiddishe communities build up supply and demand changes. Prices will not plummet. They will level off
No one from Brooklyn is moving to a small brookwood cape. Those are all yeshivish families.
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amother
  Peony  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 9:56 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Yes exactly!

I just wish we knew when!!!
I wish I knew when too. But I know a bad deal when I see one. A Lakewood duplex will likely hold its value. Those little brookwood houses, there’s no way.
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amother
Sage


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:03 pm
They had about 5 comic strips about this for the married Kichels couple in mishpacha magazine.
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amother
  OP  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:15 pm
amother [ Peony ] wrote:
No one from Brooklyn is moving to a small brookwood cape. Those are all yeshivish families.


Yes exactly. I’d love to know what their thoughts process is behind spending so much. Or maybe there just is no thought process...
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amother
  Birch


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:18 pm
Some people don't have a choice. They either need to move because the landlord wants the apartment/ house or they grew out of it. They need to buy and they want to live in certain areas so they take what they can get. They are desperate.
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amother
Fuchsia


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:20 pm
amother [ Peony ] wrote:
No one from Brooklyn is moving to a small brookwood cape. Those are all yeshivish families.


Not true. I live in brookwood one. I know people who moved here from out of Lakewood, like from Skver, specifically because the houses are more affordable than where they’re from.
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amother
Hotpink  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:21 pm
I bought recently, I'll bite. My husband is in kollel and I have a decent salary. I was working for quite a few years before we got married and saved up a nice down payment. We bought a 450k house (10% down) and are renting it out until we need it. Mortgage is still more than our rent on a 2 bedroom basement, when we need more space we will kick the tenants out.
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amother
  OP  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:24 pm
amother [ Hotpink ] wrote:
I bought recently, I'll bite. My husband is in kollel and I have a decent salary. I was working for quite a few years before we got married and saved up a nice down payment. We bought a 450k house (10% down) and are renting it out until we need it. Mortgage is still more than our rent on a 2 bedroom basement, when we need more space we will kick the tenants out.


Thank you for sharing! Do you see yourselves able to afford the payments with your current income?
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amother
Amethyst  


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:31 pm
You can't compare the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008 with what is currently happening.

In 2008 people were buying houses that were completely unaffordable to them because mortgages were being granted on the basis of no documents or false documents. Many of the mortgages had very short term artificially low interest rates in the first two years with high payments or balloon payments - theoretically the idea was that people would refinance or sell their home because it had appreciated so much in two years.

While there might be a bit of loose stuff the mortgage process for most people now is verified - no more so called "liar's loans". There has to be a reasonable expectation that one's income is enough to pay for the mortgage.

Also there were a huge number of homes in which the FMV of a home was much less than the mortgage and people had no equity because they weren't required to make a large down payment so they walked away from the mortgage since most mortgages are non-recourse - e.g. the bank can only foreclose but can't get additional money from the borrower. \

Although there are programs in which only 3% down payment is required, my understanding is that those loans are very careful about verifying the financial submissions and also making sure that the home appraises well so that it is unlikely that someone will just walk away from the home.

It is likely that the market will cool but that isn't the same as the market collapses. Even in 2008 desirable areas retailed their value because people still wanted to live there AND because the people who owned homes were financially stable so they weren't forced to sell. In other words, they had bought a home to live iive in and could still afford to pay the mortgage so they just didn't sell but stayed in their homes. They also tended to be less impacted by job loss in that period as they were more financially stable to begin with.
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amother
  Hotpink


 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 10:36 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Thank you for sharing! Do you see yourselves able to afford the payments with your current income?

We can, but it'll be tight. I hope my husband will get a job before we move so that we'll have more wiggle room.
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gamanit




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Jan 02 2022, 11:43 pm
amother [ Amethyst ] wrote:

In 2008 people were buying houses that were completely unaffordable to them because mortgages were being granted on the basis of no documents or false documents. Many of the mortgages had very short term artificially low interest rates in the first two years with high payments or balloon payments - theoretically the idea was that people would refinance or sell their home because it had appreciated so much in two years.


Pretty sure the same thing is going on now. Whenever the prices of houses goes above what people can afford, desperate people take desperate measures. I don't have a source for this but I heard someone say that if you crunch the numbers, 70% of Americans cannot afford a home in the community where they live. Yet people need places to live so they make it work by hook or by crook. We don't know when it will all go crashing down. Just a wild guess two or three years as people who bought houses in 2020 with money they didn't have begin to foreclose on their loans. Might be more like five or six. There are many signs that the market isn't stable. If the price on a house seems insanely high and you can afford to wait it might be worth waiting. Go through the numbers and see if you can actually afford your mortgage. Don't just do what everyone else is doing.
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amother
Currant


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 4:07 am
I recently got married and am being supported, but minimally. I had three single working years where I worked super hard with one full time job, and two night jobs. One of them being self employed so no taxes. I saved quiet a bit of money - enough to put a minimal down payment on a 650k home in an up and coming neighborhood. As the lot sat waiting through COVID complications before getting built, I continued saving up money. One year later I am married with savings again, and am about to close. I am renting elsewhere which will allow me to rent out the top and bottom of the house. I will be making enough money to pay back my mortgage, plus. Oh, and the house went up 300k in value.

any of you with working daughters out there??? Encourage them to think ahead!
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amother
Stoneblue


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 7:36 am
amother [ Currant ] wrote:
I recently got married and am being supported, but minimally. I had three single working years where I worked super hard with one full time job, and two night jobs. One of them being self employed so no taxes. I saved quiet a bit of money - enough to put a minimal down payment on a 650k home in an up and coming neighborhood. As the lot sat waiting through COVID complications before getting built, I continued saving up money. One year later I am married with savings again, and am about to close. I am renting elsewhere which will allow me to rent out the top and bottom of the house. I will be making enough money to pay back my mortgage, plus. Oh, and the house went up 300k in value.

any of you with working daughters out there??? Encourage them to think ahead!


Since when do self employed not pay taxes??
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cupcake123




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 7:45 am
amother [ Stoneblue ] wrote:
Since when do self employed not pay taxes??


Self employed usually get a 1099 instead of W2. They pay (a big chunk) taxes once a year by tax season instead of with every pay check
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amother
  Offwhite  


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 7:57 am
cupcake123 wrote:
Self employed usually get a 1099 instead of W2. They pay (a big chunk) taxes once a year by tax season instead of with every pay check


Or pay estimated tax through year if it is enough money.
But not paying taxes when self employed is illegal.
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amother
  Peony  


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 8:19 am
amother [ Stoneblue ] wrote:
Since when do self employed not pay taxes??
Umm. Best not discussed in a public forum. That’s not how most people afford their houses.
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amother
Daffodil


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 9:12 am
amother [ Currant ] wrote:
I recently got married and am being supported, but minimally. I had three single working years where I worked super hard with one full time job, and two night jobs. One of them being self employed so no taxes. I saved quiet a bit of money - enough to put a minimal down payment on a 650k home in an up and coming neighborhood. As the lot sat waiting through COVID complications before getting built, I continued saving up money. One year later I am married with savings again, and am about to close. I am renting elsewhere which will allow me to rent out the top and bottom of the house. I will be making enough money to pay back my mortgage, plus. Oh, and the house went up 300k in value.

any of you with working daughters out there??? Encourage them to think ahead!


Hmm. What can you possibly mean about self-employed means no taxes???
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amother
  Peony  


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 9:18 am
Hello, FBI? Please be gentle with amother currant. Innocent mistake. She didn’t know self employed pay tax. The money is all in that house she purchased … yes … don’t worry, it’s gone up in value. I’m sure the penalties won’t be an issue.
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amother
Maroon  


 

Post Mon, Jan 03 2022, 9:22 am
amother [ Amethyst ] wrote:
You can't compare the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008 with what is currently happening.

In 2008 people were buying houses that were completely unaffordable to them because mortgages were being granted on the basis of no documents or false documents. Many of the mortgages had very short term artificially low interest rates in the first two years with high payments or balloon payments - theoretically the idea was that people would refinance or sell their home because it had appreciated so much in two years.

While there might be a bit of loose stuff the mortgage process for most people now is verified - no more so called "liar's loans". There has to be a reasonable expectation that one's income is enough to pay for the mortgage.

Also there were a huge number of homes in which the FMV of a home was much less than the mortgage and people had no equity because they weren't required to make a large down payment so they walked away from the mortgage since most mortgages are non-recourse - e.g. the bank can only foreclose but can't get additional money from the borrower. \

Although there are programs in which only 3% down payment is required, my understanding is that those loans are very careful about verifying the financial submissions and also making sure that the home appraises well so that it is unlikely that someone will just walk away from the home.

It is likely that the market will cool but that isn't the same as the market collapses. Even in 2008 desirable areas retailed their value because people still wanted to live there AND because the people who owned homes were financially stable so they weren't forced to sell. In other words, they had bought a home to live iive in and could still afford to pay the mortgage so they just didn't sell but stayed in their homes. They also tended to be less impacted by job loss in that period as they were more financially stable to begin with.


Actually no doc mortgages are back. I recently went to contract and then my buyer was rejected from the mortgage company. We thought we needed to put our house up for sale again. Our buyer begged us to give them more time. I thought what planet are they living on. They were rejected, time to move on. Shocker of shocker, they came back approved for a no doc mortgage and we were able to close right away.
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