If it were 23 people in the room, it would be 50%. At 22 people, just a tad less, I suppose.
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I think there are 23 people. She entered the room after it already had 22. I don’t get why there’s a 50% chance that out of 365 days 2 should have the same birthday.
Why do you always mess up your answers? You were right till the last paragraph
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Messy barber shop barber does a perfect job while clean barber shop barber does a messy job. The proof is on their (fish) heads. They each use the only other barber in town.
Lol
you haven't seen my hair... Last time I went to have a haircut was before Covid-19, I suspect it was exactly 1 year ago...
I think there are 23 people. She entered the room after it already had 22. I don’t get why there’s a 50% chance that out of 365 days 2 should have the same birthday.
Its been a long time since I took statistics, but Wikipedia gives it a go.
Ivan lost all his money in the casino. He decides to commit suicide and plays "russian Roulette": he takes an empty revolver with a cylinder with 6 spots for bullets, puts a bullet in one spot, rotates the cylinder, holds the revolver to his head and pulls the trigger.
What are the chances that he will shoot himself?
If he did not shoot himself the first time, he rotates the cylinder again (I.e. mixes anew), holds the revolver to his head and pulls the triger. What are the chances that he will be death by now (shot at the first or second try)?
Ivan lost all his money in the casino. He decides to commit suicide and plays "russian Roulette": he takes an empty revolver with a cylinder with 6 spots for bullets, puts a bullet in one spot, rotates the cylinder, holds the revolver to his head and pulls the trigger.
What are the chances that he will shoot himself?
If he did not shoot himself the first time, he rotates the cylinder again (I.e. mixes anew), holds the revolver to his head and pulls the triger. What are the chances that he will be death by now (shot at the first or second try)?
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33.33%?
Or is the answer that its always 50% either dead or not
It’s probably not the same answer again. Help me...
Exactly.
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The dirty one will clean himself. Because he saw the other guy wash, so he concluded that the other guy saw him dirty, so he will wash...
whereas the other guy saw while washing that he was not dirty... so he is intelligent enough to test his face the second time round, and he discovers he is not dirty...
and then follows the third question:
again - two men fall through a chimney the third time, one is dirty, the other stays clean, who will wash,
and that is where your answer comes in:
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Why would two guys fall through the same chimney three times, and each time one is dirty, the other stays clean...
The dirty one will clean himself. Because he saw the other guy wash, so he concluded that the other guy saw him dirty, so he will wash...
whereas the other guy saw while washing that he was not dirty... so he is intelligent enough to test his face the second time round, and he discovers he is not dirty...
and then follows the third question:
again - two men fall through a chimney the third time, one is dirty, the other stays clean, who will wash,
and that is where your answer comes in:
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Why would two guys fall through the same chimney three times, and each time one is dirty, the other stays clean...
33.33%?
Or is the answer that its always 50% either dead or not
That would be if he did not mix again... then, after 6 tries he would be sure to be death, and at each try he would have 1/6 = 16,666% more risk of dying...
but when he mixes anew, the math is different.
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He has 5/6 chances of surviving, at which each new try (let's call the number of tries n), his chances of surviving will go down from 5/6 to (5/6)^2, (5/6)^3, (5/6)^n
And his chances of dying will be 1- chances of survivng, so 1-(5/6)^n
So with two tries, his survival chances would be 69,4%, his chances of dying slightly over 30%...
So he could afford 4 tries before his survival chances go under 50%, and he could afford 13 tries before his survival chances go under 10%
That would be if he did not mix again... then, after 6 tries he would be sure to be death, and at each try he would have 1/6 = 16,666% more risk of dying...
but when he mixes anew, the math is different.
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He has 5/6 chances of surviving, at which each new try (let's call the number of tries n), his chances of surviving will go down from 5/6 to (5/6)^2, (5/6)^3, (5/6)^n
And his chances of dying will be 1- chances of survivng, so 1-(5/6)^n
So with two tries, his survival chances would be 69,4%, his chances of dying slightly over 30%...
So he could afford 4 tries before his survival chances go under 50%, and he could afford 13 tries before his survival chances go under 10%
